Netflix begins to crack

[PussyGalore]

I've been saying for awhile now that Netflix is insanely overvalued and financially overextended and it would only be a matter of time before reality sets in and they begin to lose ground. Well, it looks like that moment might have arrived. Netflix reported on Monday that they failed to hit subscriber targets for the quarter. Naturally the market reacted and they lost 30 billion in share value.

Below is a fascinating article that highlights the spending deficit (in the billions) that Netflix can't possibly hope to recoup. More importantly, Netflix doesn't have a lot of proprietary value other than the shows it produces itself. Compare this to its streaming competitors Disney, Apple, and Amazon, all of which are heavily diversified in other products that make up their stock base. If any of these competitors struggle in the streaming market it won't tank that particular company, unlike Netflix which has no such safety net in place.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2...ber-slowdown-could-mark-streaming-giants-peak

 

[Joelist]

They didn’t just “fail” to hit targets on sucscribers they missed it by almost 50%.

 

[PussyGalore]

They didn’t just “fail” to hit targets on sucscribers they missed it by almost 50%.

The numbers are shocking to me. How can investors not see that the emperor has no clothes? Netflix is spending billions more than it's bringing in just this year alone. Massive deficit spending is not the way to successfully run a business, especially when your business is subscriber based and you get no other revenue stream. Disney, Apple and Amazon all have multiple revenue streams feeding into their bottom line. Netflix literally only has subscribers, that's it.

 

[heisenberg]

I've been saying for awhile now that Netflix is insanely overvalued and financially overextended and it would only be a matter of time before reality sets in and they begin to lose ground. Well, it looks like that moment might have arrived. Netflix reported on Monday that they failed to hit subscriber targets for the quarter. Naturally the market reacted and they lost 30 billion in share value.

Below is a fascinating article that highlights the spending deficit (in the billions) that Netflix can't possibly hope to recoup. More importantly, Netflix doesn't have a lot of proprietary value other than the shows it produces itself. Compare this to its streaming competitors Disney, Apple, and Amazon, all of which are heavily diversified in other products that make up their stock base. If any of these competitors struggle in the streaming market it won't tank that particular company, unlike Netflix which has no such safety net in place.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2...ber-slowdown-could-mark-streaming-giants-peak

Every single stock on the stock market is overvalued. It's a good time to short and make a truck load of money . If you think netflix is overvalued, then go to amazon. Wait till next week. People don't even have the faintest idea that if the reports are a little off which they will be, the market will punish them but good time to short the shit out of amazon.

 

[PussyGalore]

Every single stock on the stock market is overvalued. It's a good time to short and make a truck load of money . If you think netflix is overvalued, then go to amazon. Wait till next week. People don't even have the faintest idea that if the reports are a little off which they will be, the market will punish them but good time to short the shit out of amazon.

Well at least Amazon is diversified whereas Netflix isn't. Netflix is a one-trick pony and when that pony breaks a leg it's game over. They have nothing to fall back on, nothing to sell that will be worth anywhere near what they spent on it (like their original programming).

There is definitely shenanigans going on with stock valuation though. It doesn't make sense that Netflix is valued at $172 billion whereas Disney is valued for less at $164 billion. Disney Entertainment is clearly a more valuable company in terms of licensing materials. This can't be denied yet still Netflix is marketed as being worth more. That's laughable. Anyone who believes Netflix is really worth $172 billion is a fool.

 

[heisenberg]

Well at least Amazon is diversified whereas Netflix isn't. Netflix is a one-trick pony and when that pony breaks a leg it's game over. They have nothing to fall back on, nothing to sell that will be worth anywhere near what they spent on it (like their original programming).

There is definitely shenanigans going on with stock valuation though. It doesn't make sense that Netflix is valued at $172 billion whereas Disney is valued for less at $164 billion. Disney Entertainment is clearly a more valuable company in terms of licensing materials. This can't be denied yet still Netflix is marketed as being worth more. That's laughable. Anyone who believes Netflix is really worth $172 billion is a fool.

That 30 billion dollars that was wiped off went into bitcoin . Watch another rally coming up next week.

 

[heisenberg]

Well at least Amazon is diversified whereas Netflix isn't. Netflix is a one-trick pony and when that pony breaks a leg it's game over. They have nothing to fall back on, nothing to sell that will be worth anywhere near what they spent on it (like their original programming).

There is definitely shenanigans going on with stock valuation though. It doesn't make sense that Netflix is valued at $172 billion whereas Disney is valued for less at $164 billion. Disney Entertainment is clearly a more valuable company in terms of licensing materials. This can't be denied yet still Netflix is marketed as being worth more. That's laughable. Anyone who believes Netflix is really worth $172 billion is a fool.

Amazon is overvalued by EPS. It was pumped at 900 dollars back in December and just 6 months it has doubled in price. Yeah, that price seems unsustainable to me. I see the SP crawling back down to 1000 or 1200

 

[PussyGalore]

Amazon is overvalued by EPS. It was pumped at 900 dollars back in December and just 6 months it has doubled in price. Yeah, that price seems unsustainable to me. I see the SP crawling back down to 1000 or 1200

Amazon may be overvalued but should the stock value contract the company has enough diversification that it won't tank. Netflix does not have those same tangible assets under-girding them. When the Netflix valuation begins to drop -- and it will -- there will be nothing to break the fall.

 

[heisenberg]

Amazon may be overvalued but should the stock value contract the company has enough diversification that it won't tank. Netflix does not have those same tangible assets under-girding them. When the Netflix valuation begins to drop -- and it will -- there will be nothing to break the fall.

Well, we will see,but I still reckon that it's a bubble. The FAANG stocks make up 98% of the gains. It's too tempting not to short these stocks and I'll be waiting on the sidelines to short them. This is looking like 1997 all over again. Shorting Nasdaq will be great too. I have a very good idea of when the crash is going to happen.It's coming but not this month .

 

[heisenberg]

They didn’t just “fail” to hit targets on sucscribers they missed it by almost 50%.

Bollywood will keep netflix afloat.

 

[Overmind One]

Netflix could start adding porn to the services....seriously speaking!

 

[heisenberg]

Amazon may be overvalued but should the stock value contract the company has enough diversification that it won't tank. Netflix does not have those same tangible assets under-girding them. When the Netflix valuation begins to drop -- and it will -- there will be nothing to break the fall.

 

[PussyGalore]

Yes, the markets are an over-inflated bubble right now, that's a certainty. But when the bubble pops various companies will survive because they are diversified. Netflix is not diversified and it has no safety net to survive the crash.

 

[heisenberg]

Yes, the markets are an over-inflated bubble right now, that's a certainty. But when the bubble pops various companies will survive because they are diversified. Netflix is not diversified and it has no safety net to survive the crash.

It will get bought by Apple, just watch . They have plenty of cash and will save Netflix. They have over 250 billion dollars in cash and you don't think that they want to compete with amazon/hulu/disney? Of course they do. Right now they are waiting patiently on the side and then pounce on it when necessary.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/karlka...-why-you-can-ignore-some-analyst-predictions/

 

[PussyGalore]

It will get bought by Apple, just watch . They have plenty of cash and will save Netflix. They have over 250 billion dollars in cash and you don't think that they want to compete with amazon/hulu/disney? Of course they do. Right now they are waiting patiently on the side and then pounce on it when necessary.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/karlka...-why-you-can-ignore-some-analyst-predictions/

Yes, I already said Apple was a player in the streaming service game. And I predicted a long time ago that Netflix will eventually have to merge with another company in order to survive. If they're smart they will do it before they tank completely.

What's happening at Netflix is sketchy af but fairly common these days. It's SOP in the corporate world now. What these executives do is they leverage the f*** out of a company and do their best to inflate the share price by creating either a "growth phase" or "reorganization" or some sort of financial shenanigans. These executives are the first to bail from the ship as soon as things begin to go south. They always cash out with hundreds of millions in their own pockets, leaving the average investors to go down with the ship. I've seen this happen myself when I worked for a national company.

It's all legal believe it or not. And it is contributing to the destruction of our economy and our overall cost of living across the board. I'm all for the free market but I believe this type of fiscal malfeasance is legally actionable and should be prosecuted in our courts. It's been that way for decades though and nothing's been done by TPTB so chances are nothing is going to change in the immediate future.

 

[heisenberg]

Yes, I already said Apple was a player in the streaming service game. And I predicted a long time ago that Netflix will eventually have to merge with another company in order to survive. If they're smart they will do it before they tank completely.

What's happening at Netflix is sketchy af but fairly common these days. It's SOP in the corporate world now. What these executives do is they leverage the f*** out of a company and do their best to inflate the share price by creating either a "growth phase" or "reorganization" or some sort of financial shenanigans. These executives are the first to bail from the ship as soon as things begin to go south. They always cash out with hundreds of millions in their own pockets, leaving the average investors to go down with the ship. I've seen this happen myself when I worked for a national company.

It's all legal believe it or not. And it is contributing to the destruction of our economy and our overall cost of living across the board. I'm all for the free market but I believe this type of fiscal malfeasance is legally actionable and should be prosecuted in our courts. It's been that way for decades though and nothing's been done by TPTB so chances are nothing is going to change in the immediate future.

I am waiting to short every single FAANG stock there is.

 

[Overmind One]

If Apple buys Netflix, it will still sink. They will change it into something nobody wants anymore, it will be chintzy on content and the price will rise. It will become more like Hulu, and will gradually move into the walled garden of Apple. Nothing in the Apple ecosystem is about value and convenience. Amazon will take it's seat on the throne of streaming services.

 

[heisenberg]

If Apple buys Netflix, it will still sink. They will change it into something nobody wants anymore, it will be chintzy on content and the price will rise. It will become more like Hulu, and will gradually move into the walled garden of Apple. Nothing in the Apple ecosystem is about value and convenience. Amazon will take it's seat on the throne of streaming services.

You under-estimate apple then. Apple will also invest in having their very own cryptocurrency too. They are going to revolutionize the entire monetary system as well as the Virtual world.

 

[heisenberg]

If Apple buys Netflix, it will still sink. They will change it into something nobody wants anymore, it will be chintzy on content and the price will rise. It will become more like Hulu, and will gradually move into the walled garden of Apple. Nothing in the Apple ecosystem is about value and convenience. Amazon will take it's seat on the throne of streaming services.

Yes but note that once a business is liquidated, the assets are bought and sold to the highest bidder.

 

[PussyGalore]

Yes but note that once a business is liquidated, the assets are bought and sold to the highest bidder.

I'm not really arguing against your point but wanted to mention that Netflix might be absorbed into another company (like Apple or Disney) before it crashes totally. I think whoever buys it will do it at a discount. I simply can't imagine anyone stupid enough to pay "full price" for Netflix. Then again, there's all sorts of financial shenanigans that happen on Wall Street so who knows how it will ultimately play out.