Defiance Ratings and Predictions Thread (Awards Given)

[Gatefan1976]

The good press is down to PR and all that other nonsense. It's easy to brainwash people. All it takes is number of attempts until you have them.

Hmmm........ ok................

The game will continue at best for another year until it's cancelled.

Hmmm........ ok.................

 

[heisenberg]

Hmmm........ ok................

Hmmm........ ok.................

Do you not believe me? If you write good things about something, people will get suckered into it.

People are watching this show out of desperation and are forcing themselves to like it because there isn't anything else on. I was one of those that was looking forward to Defiance, but when the trailer aired, doubt starting creeping in and then when it premiered, I went from being excited to strongly disliking it.


As for the game, SW:TOR was suppose to be a subscription based game. It only stayed that way for a year until it went F2P. It's only now that new content is coming in because of the star wars franchise being rebooted, but an insane amount of money was poured into this mmo. I am talking 200m+ easily. My point is, once defiance is cancelled, people will lose interest in the game too.

 

[Jim of WVa]

How do you figure that? Why would new episodes be "marginal" in terms of cost? It's a live action show with a large cast, numerous sets and large production staff. I don't see how the cost diminishes over time.

And keep in mind they have to recoup the $100 million-plus that has been spent to produce this turd originally. They don't start making a profit until they've crossed that threshold, and even then it won't be worth it if they only make a few million in the end.

Now, granted, I don't know what kind of numbers this show is getting in foreign countries. Maybe in the long run the collective ratings and DVD sales of this show will put them over the top, but that is a hard mountain to tackle.

And regarding your SGU reference, keep in mind that the show came with a built-in audience. DEFECATION did not. If they're starting to spend less on filming episodes of DEFECATION that's only because the investors are getting wary and don't want to risk more money on something that is clearly not succeeding as well as hoped for.

Once those numerous sets have been paid for during the first two seasons, additional seasons can use those sets for free. Salary costs do not diminish with time, but other costs do.

 

[Gatefan1976]

Do you not believe me? If you write good things about something, people will get suckered into it.

I believe you dude, but good reviews for TV shows generate initial interest, the don't sustain an audience.

People are watching this show out of desperation and are forcing themselves to like it because there isn't anything else on.

I don't think that is a reasonable assertion.

I was one of those that was looking forward to Defiance, but when the trailer aired, doubt starting creeping in and then when it premiered, I went from being excited to strongly disliking it.

Sure, I was in that boat as well.

As for the game, SW:TOR was suppose to be a subscription based game. It only stayed that way for a year until it went F2P. It's only now that new content is coming in because of the star wars franchise being rebooted, but an insane amount of money was poured into this mmo. I am talking 200m+ easily.

SW:TOR has had 3 upgrades under the FTP model, I know, because I played them.

My point is, once defiance is cancelled, people will lose interest in the game too.

It is a possibility, but you would need to know more about the demographics of people who play the game. I am sure there are people who play who have very little interest in the show at all.

 

[shavedape]

Once those numerous sets have been paid for during the first two seasons, additional seasons can use those sets for free. Salary costs do not diminish with time, but other costs do.

I'm not seeing it. As it is I doubt they have broken even yet in terms of the budget. And when they do I don't see it being by a huge margin.

Again, a 1.5 rating isn't that great and it doesn't portend well for DVD sales either. So I don't see how this show is recouping all the money that has been spent, and will continue to be spent, for the foreseeable future. Admittedly I'm no accountant nor do I know the real numbers here so I'm just basing this assessment on common sense.

 

[Overmind One]

I'm not seeing it. As it is I doubt they have broken even yet in terms of the budget. And when they do I don't see it being by a huge margin.

Again, a 1.5 rating isn't that great and it doesn't portend well for DVD sales either. So I don't see how this show is recouping all the money that has been spent, and will continue to be spent, for the foreseeable future. Admittedly I'm no accountant nor do I know the real numbers here so I'm just basing this assessment on common sense.

I still think they are going to cancel it "unexpectedly" (but not so much unexpected). They had a two year "trial", and they are guilty of failure and silliness. Guilty as charged. The penalty is DEATH by mauling from the Cancellation Bear.

 

[heisenberg]

I believe you dude, but good reviews for TV shows generate initial interest, the don't sustain an audience.


I don't think that is a reasonable assertion.

Why do you think it's not a reasonable assertion? A lot of money was poured into the PR side when it came to defiance. It was suppose to be the next big science fiction "franchise" that was suppose to take over from star trek/stargate as claimed by many reporters and even syfy themselves. What a crock of shit that was. Once you have people brainwashed, it is very hard for people to change their minds. Marketing is all psychological.

People read good things about defiance because how much stuff was being advertised about it. Besides, because stargate got cancelled, there isn't star trek on, people basically went to defiance because there isn't any big budget show that was on. Do you not see how people can be mislead or persuaded into liking a show just by good words?

People bashed the hell out of syfy for not renewing SGA or SGU( We celebrated for this). They also cancelled warehouse 13, Alphas, Being Human, BSG, Eureka, Caprica....I could go on but you get the idea. Do you not see why people will want defiance to succeed? They force themselves to watch it and like it, hoping that it will change or be like the shows I mentioned above when it's never going to be.

 

[Tripler]

There is still someone guarding the set as of this morning . It has a rotation of 2 guards . One fellow I know . I have not met the other guy yet though I am tempted just to see if I can wriggle some info out of him lol . Be patient kiddies . I'm away this weekend but come Monday , I'll have a look see ...

 

[Gatefan1976]

Why do you think it's not a reasonable assertion? A lot of money was poured into the PR side when it came to defiance. It was suppose to be the next big science fiction "franchise" that was suppose to take over from star trek/stargate as claimed by many reporters and even syfy themselves. What a crock of shit that was. Once you have people brainwashed, it is very hard for people to change their minds. Marketing is all psychological.

I don't think it is reasonable because we don't have enough INFORMATION to make it reasonable. Almost 2 years in and we have seen it shed some 1 million people, which is bad sure, but it is, for whatever reason, holding it's audience steady at this point. As for Brainwashing, I think you underestimate just how hard it is to do it to the degree you are ascribing to the show/game. Defiance did not have a "brand" to fall back on and having a brand certainly does make it easier to brainwash people, but Defiance is more like the generic you get from ALDI trying to make a name for itself. As Jim notes when he makes his predictions -Defiance is above where SGU was at this point- AND SGU had a certain amount of brand loyalty built in to it's audience.

People read good things about defiance because how much stuff was being advertised about it. Besides, because stargate got cancelled, there isn't star trek on, people basically went to defiance because there isn't any big budget show that was on. Do you not see how people can be mislead or persuaded into liking a show just by good words?

Of course, I am VERY well aware of how marketing works dude, but there are other scifi, or arguably scifi skinned shows out there for them to choose from. Why are they not all on the Continuum train? or FS, or Last Ship or whatever?

People bashed the hell out of syfy for not renewing SGA or SGU( We celebrated for this). They also cancelled warehouse 13, Alphas, Being Human, BSG, Eureka, Caprica....I could go on but you get the idea. Do you not see why people will want defiance to succeed? They force themselves to watch it and like it, hoping that it will change or be like the shows I mentioned above when it's never going to be.

No, I don't see that because the bashing of SYFY tends to go hand in hand with the notion of boycotting the Channel as a whole for doing just what you said. People get angry and unreasonable when they loose their toys, and they chuck a freaking tanti on the net as a release valve. You go back to the old Nabble days and you saw it ALL the time, people just spewing as much profanity as they could string togeather with no coherent points. Then you got people like Uxmal who systematically decimated SGU simply because it was a bad show with little to no coherent structure besides writer desire. SGUS served as a sorta meeting point between the two where you could do both, or one or the other and have a laugh or have a think.
In short, I see no reason why a group of people, angry at SYFY would give two dingo nuts weather a show with no pedigree to speak of succeeds on a channel they hate. Even today you have people leery of any kind of Scifi on FOX based on their experiences with Firefly, and that was almost 12 years ago!!
Will good reviews get people to *watch* a show to give it a chance, YES. Will it maintain a stable audience? NO.

 

[shavedape]

I still think they are going to cancel it "unexpectedly" (but not so much unexpected). They had a two year "trial", and they are guilty of failure and silliness. Guilty as charged. The penalty is DEATH by mauling from the Cancellation Bear.

I strongly suspect they will try to do some sort of rushed and pathetic "finale" when the axe finally falls. They probably even have it written into the contracts with SyFy as the producers of this turd want to save face and try to claim that the show was a success. I know the last thing I'd want if I was an investor in DEFECATION would be to go out with a whimper like Caprica did as there's absolutely no resale value when you crash and burn that bad. But with a "series finale" they can at least cobble a DVD collection together and (fraudulently) claim the show was a success.

 

[heisenberg]

I don't think it is reasonable because we don't have enough INFORMATION to make it reasonable. Almost 2 years in and we have seen it shed some 1 million people, which is bad sure, but it is, for whatever reason, holding it's audience steady at this point.

Uhh...you do remember what happened with SGU, right? The same thing is happening here. Those who have clung onto SGU, were watching it out of desperation. You can go to gateworld forums to read this. I gave up at the beginning of season 2. I admit that I clung on and tried to give it a chance but that was because i was hoping this was stargate i know. Same principle applies here. Those who have clung on have accepted defiance and are "okay" by it. Besides, this show seems to target more female than male. If defiance is renewed, it will probably have fewer episodes to so called 'conclude" the storyline. How sad that we didn't get a SGA conclusion.

As for Brainwashing, I think you underestimate just how hard it is to do it to the degree you are ascribing to the show/game. Defiance did not have a "brand" to fall back on and having a brand certainly does make it easier to brainwash people, but Defiance is more like the generic you get from ALDI trying to make a name for itself. As Jim notes when he makes his predictions -Defiance is above where SGU was at this point- AND SGU had a certain amount of brand loyalty built in to it's audience.

...and I think you under-estimate how dumb a human being can be. You don't need to look far...
http://publicshaming.tumblr.com/ People often say a lot of dumb things on social media. That websiite is a clear example. Full of homophobes/racist/xenophobes...

Oh and while defiance may not have an established brand to fall back on, it certainly had support from the press, syfy and other forms of social media that allowed it to stand on its two feet.

Of course, I am VERY well aware of how marketing works dude, but there are other scifi, or arguably scifi skinned shows out there for them to choose from. Why are they not all on the Continuum train? or FS, or Last Ship or whatever?

What do you mean by this?

No, I don't see that because the bashing of SYFY tends to go hand in hand with the notion of boycotting the Channel as a whole for doing just what you said. People get angry and unreasonable when they loose their toys, and they chuck a freaking tanti on the net as a release valve. You go back to the old Nabble days and you saw it ALL the time, people just spewing as much profanity as they could string togeather with no coherent points. Then you got people like Uxmal who systematically decimated SGU simply because it was a bad show with little to no coherent structure besides writer desire. SGUS served as a sorta meeting point between the two where you could do both, or one or the other and have a laugh or have a think.


In short, I see no reason why a group of people, angry at SYFY would give two dingo nuts weather a show with no pedigree to speak of succeeds on a channel they hate. Even today you have people leery of any kind of Scifi on FOX based on their experiences with Firefly, and that was almost 12 years ago!!

People have the right to hold grudges.I do it in real life too, but only when someone has done the unspeakable. It's extremely rare that I hold a grudge over someone, but only because they are coming in my way or they have done something that no one liked. Again, people loved stargate because it allowed them to escape from reality and it was because it was bringing FUN/entertainment to their lives. Life is difficult which is why we watch tv. It's to help us manage the stress and other bollocks that life throws at you. That's why people got angry and they have every right to be. TV unfortunately has lost this 'fun' factor.

Will good reviews get people to *watch* a show to give it a chance, YES. Will it maintain a stable audience? NO.

It depends on who is watching it. People will watch it if there isn't anything else on.

 

[heisenberg]

To further prove how dumb people can be, pewdiepie has the largest subscribers on youtube and you'll lose a few million brain cells just by watching his videos. Not to mention the new Nicki Minaj track anaconda which is currently in the front page of youtube here and has already got like 30 million views already and that stupid gangamstyle track with 2 billion views.

 

[Gatefan1976]

Uhh...you do remember what happened with SGU, right? The same thing is happening here. Those who have clung onto SGU, were watching it out of desperation. You can go to gateworld forums to read this. I gave up at the beginning of season 2.

No, not the same.
SGU continued to dive, no matter WHO was clinging to it like the last raft on the Titanic, Defiance is holding steady.
I am making no comment on it's content, merely it's numbers.

I admit that I clung on and tried to give it a chance but that was because i was hoping this was stargate i know. Same principle applies here. Those who have clung on have accepted defiance and are "okay" by it. Besides, this show seems to target more female than male. If defiance is renewed, it will probably have fewer episodes to so called 'conclude" the storyline. How sad that we didn't get a SGA conclusion.

Conflating your point does not help you here.
The transition between SGA to SGU is in NO WAY similar to Defiance. Defiance is it's own thing, and it will stand or fall on that.
I think it fails, so do you. I just recognize that enough people seem to think it CAN succeed based on it's content.

...and I think you under-estimate how dumb a human being can be. You don't need to look far...
http://publicshaming.tumblr.com/ People often say a lot of dumb things on social media. That websiite is a clear example. Full of homophobes/racist/xenophobes...

No, I REALLY do not underestimate how dumb people can be.

Oh and while defiance may not have an established brand to fall back on, it certainly had support from the press, syfy and other forms of social media that allowed it to stand on its two feet.

You over-rate these things dude. If I recommended you a show, and said I think it is the utter shizznit, I *may* be able to convince you to watch AN episode, and if you liked it, you would go back and watch it from the start, but if you did not?

What do you mean by this?

That there are other shows to watch to get a "scifi fix"
What do you think I meant?

People have the right to hold grudges.I do it in real life too, but only when someone has done the unspeakable. It's extremely rare that I hold a grudge over someone, but only because they are coming in my way or they have done something that no one liked. Again, people loved stargate because it allowed them to escape from reality and it was because it was bringing FUN/entertainment to their lives. Life is difficult which is why we watch tv. It's to help us manage the stress and other bollocks that life throws at you. That's why people got angry and they have every right to be. TV unfortunately has lost this 'fun' factor.

I agree with that assessment.

It depends on who is watching it. People will watch it if there isn't anything else on.

\
Then they are lemmings, and I cannot be arsed to give a shit about them.

 

[Gatefan1976]

To further prove how dumb people can be, pewdiepie has the largest subscribers on youtube and you'll lose a few million brain cells just by watching his videos. Not to mention the new Nicki Minaj track anaconda which is currently in the front page of youtube here and has already got like 30 million views already and that stupid gangamstyle track with 2 billion views.

Wow
You use Youtube views and complain about dumb??
That's like complaining that Wikipedia is inaccurate.
It's true, but most people seem not to give a toss.

 

[shavedape]

I get what H is saying. People are watching this crap because it's there, not because it's good. There is a dearth of scifi options right now so fans of the genre are compromising their viewing habits out of desperation. Plus there are people who are just plain dumb and will watch anything they're told to. Do I really need to play the Kardashian card to make my point?

(I assume you folks in Oz have been subjected to the horror that is American reality programming such as the Kardashians. My apologies if my assumption is wrong -- and even more apologies if you actually do get our crappy reality shows. No one should have to endure that. )

 

[heisenberg]

No, not the same.
SGU continued to dive, no matter WHO was clinging to it like the last raft on the Titanic, Defiance is holding steady.
I am making no comment on it's content, merely it's numbers.

Do you honestly believe this is enough to keep it on air though? Alphas was also like this but got canned and never saw a second season.

Conflating your point does not help you here.
The transition between SGA to SGU is in NO WAY similar to Defiance. Defiance is it's own thing, and it will stand or fall on that.
I think it fails, so do you. I just recognize that enough people seem to think it CAN succeed based on it's content.

You misinterpreted what I meant. Let me re phrase it.

Defiance was suppose to be the next big franchise by syfy and it was suppose to go back to the channel's roots(lol). The only other franchise that is /was blockbuster is star trek/stargate. It was suppose to take over from stargate. Even if defiance is a new franchise, it still had heavy support from the press and syfy to make the franchise sound relevant.

No, I REALLY do not underestimate how dumb people can be.

You over-rate these things dude. If I recommended you a show, and said I think it is the utter shizznit, I *may* be able to convince you to watch AN episode, and if you liked it, you would go back and watch it from the start, but if you did not?

I don't over-rates these things. I don't mind to watch any show, but I am not a sheep or like to be treated like an idiot. I won't watch what the crowd watches. I will give it a chance, but I am very selective on the shows I watch. It has to be fun to watch or a show I can relate to. Otherwise I am not watching it. Stuff like mythbusters and white collar are fun to watch because they provide interesting content. Plus, the humour reminds me of stargate a LOT and white collar is one show that has had a few stargate character cameos and even a lead role. I highly recommend people checkout white collar if you miss that light hearted humou that stargate gave us.

That there are other shows to watch to get a "scifi fix"
What do you think I meant?

There are no good sci-fi shows on anymore.Everything is either a soap opera, drama or it's fantasy. No love for science fiction these days. That's why I watch nasa videos instead on youtube. It's real science. These guys get so little credit than they get. I wish they had the budget of the military though, but america is too busy in trying to fight a war that doesn't concern them.

 

[heisenberg]

Wow
You use Youtube views and complain about dumb??
That's like complaining that Wikipedia is inaccurate.
It's true, but most people seem not to give a toss.

Youtube makes a lot of money for a lot of artists and other original content creators. It is the most popular video streaming service there is. pewdiepie alone makes 7 million dollars a year

 

[heisenberg]

Thanks Jim!
Predictions for Defiance Season 2 Episode 10
Jim of WVa - 1.5 million (Still better than SGU at this point.)
Tripler - 1.43 million
Overmind One - 1.35 million

Predictions for Defiance Season 2 Episode 11
Jim of WVa - 1.5 million (Still better than SGU at this point )
Tripler - 1.46 million
Overmind One - 1.33 million

DEFIANCE SYFY 9:00 PM 1500 0.4 - Episode 11 - Jim winnner - dead accurate


DEFIANCE SYFY 8:00 PM 1421 0.4 -Episode 10 - tripler winner - very close

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/20...eague-world-series-defiance-rush-more/295741/

 

[Jim of WVa]

DEFIANCE SYFY 9:00 PM 1500 0.4 - Episode 11 - Jim winnner - dead accurate


DEFIANCE SYFY 8:00 PM 1421 0.4 -Episode 10 - tripler winner - very close

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/20...eague-world-series-defiance-rush-more/295741/

The game was more fun with SGU because it had those quasi-periodic drops where virtually no one watched it.

 

[Overmind One]

The game was more fun with SGU because it had those quasi-periodic drops where virtually no one watched it.

Yep, and this one is just so painful to watch. It has remained steady in ratings, which is why (as much as I hate the thought), it has a POSSIBLITY of being renewed.